Active Systems
| Name | Max Wind | Classification | Lat | Lon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beryl | 75 mph | Category 1 | 10.6N | 45.1W |
Beryl
Hurricane Beryl is about 1040 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. The system will continue to generally track west to west-northwest. This will place the system on a trajectory towards the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean. Environmental conditions today are expected to be favorable for further intensification. Therefore, we cannot rule out the system becoming as strong as 85-90 mph today.
Beyond today, Beryl is expected to encounter increasingly hostile environmental conditions. Therefore, the storm is expected to weaken significantly by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles late Sunday night. There is increasing uncertainty regarding whether or not the system will still be a tropical storm by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. Model guidance leans toward the system weakening to a remnant trough by then. Considering how much the system has over performed thus far, we cannot rule out Beryl still being a minimal tropical as it first enters the Caribbean. It should weaken to a remnant low by Monday in the eastern Caribbean.
It is important to mention that the impacts to the Lesser Antilles are expected to be the same regardless of whether or not it manages to be a remnant trough or a minimal tropical storm. Strong, gusty thunderstorms will be the primary concern for areas north of the track. Thunderstorms just north of the track will be capable of damaging wind gusts up to 50-60 mph.
Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 15 is a trough of low pressure roughly 330 miles southeast of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Some of the latest data indicate that it may not be absorbed by the approaching frontal boundary. Therefore, it may meander offshore the southeast United States Coast through early next week. Conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development. The chance of development has been raised to 50 percent. The expected weather pattern next week supports a scenario that eventually takes the system to the northeast and out to sea.
Disturbance 12 is about to move into the Yucatan Peninsula. It is not expected to develop. However, it will bring a chance of locally heavy showers and thunderstorms to the Yucatan Peninsula and portions of southern Mexico over the next day or two.
Disturbances 11 and 13 are inland. We have removed them from our analysis.
Meteorologists: Cameron Self / George Harvey
