Active Systems
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Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Thunderstorms associated with Disturbance 4 in the southwest Gulf of Mexico have increased considerably overnight. However, there are no signs of a developing low-level circulation center and there is little model support for tropical development. The disturbance will be tracking inland into Texas tomorrow afternoon, bringing potentially heavy rainfall from northern Mexico to Louisiana from Sunday afternoon through the middle of next week. In addition, these squalls may produce wind gusts to 50 kts across the northwest Gulf lease blocks tomorrow.

None of the models is predicting anything close to what was observed during Harvey last year. Most guidance is still indicting general rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches from northeast Mexico to the mid Louisiana coast. Most of this rain will between Sunday night and Wednesday morning. However, there may be a few locations where squalls may tend to “train” over. These locations could see as much as 10 to 12 inches of rainfall. The general impact will be street flooding rather than any widespread inundation.

Once Disturbance 4 is inland, a trough of low pressure will persist across the western Gulf of Mexico through next week. This trough will be the focus of additional squall development offshore, but it could also be the focus of tropical development late next week. There is at least some model support for potential tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico late next week. it’s something that we will be monitoring very closely over the coming days.

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert