Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 4 is becoming slowly better defined over the southwestern Caribbean today. The disturbance will start moving slowly to the northwest Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter, it is likely to move into the Gulf of Mexico late this week into this weekend, though there remains some uncertainty. Environmental conditions may be marginally favorable for limited development to occur. The computer models continue to not agree on development. Some insist upon a tropical storm forming over the western or southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend while others indicate no development as the system moves across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as a disturbance late this week into this weekend. Given the uncertainty and the fact that the system remains poorly defined, the chance of development is estimated at 25 percent. Regardless of development, there should be an increase of deep tropical moisture across the Gulf of Mexico late this week into this weekend.

Disturbance 5 is located along 71W or over northwestern Venezuela. The disturbance is moving to the west at 22 mph. There are no signs of organization. Development is not expected. However, the disturbance is likely to produce showers and thunderstorms across northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia today.

Disturbance 6 has been identified in the middle tropical Atlantic along 46W. The disturbance is moving to the west at 23 mph. There are no signs of organization. No development is expected. This disturbance will produce showers and thunderstorms across the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago, and northern Venezuela late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Meteorologist: Claude Aultman