Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 4 is the eastern extent of a monsoon trough located over the southwestern Caribbean. Over the next several days, the disturbance should become better defined and start moving slowly to the northwest. This should take it toward the northwest Caribbean by Tuesday or Wednesday. Thereafter, it is likely to move into the Gulf of Mexico late in the week into next weekend, though there is a high degree of uncertainty beyond then. Environmental conditions may be marginally favorable for limited development to occur. The computer models do not agree on development. Some insist upon a tropical storm forming while others indicate no development. Given the uncertainty and the fact that the system is poorly defined, the chance of development remains at 30 percent. Regardless of development, the system will bring increased tropical moisture across the Gulf of Mexico late next week.

Disturbance 5 is located along 62W or across the Windward Islands. The disturbance is moving to the west at 18 mph. There are no signs of organization. Development is not expected. However, the disturbance is likely to bring showers and possible thunderstorms to Trinidad, Tobago, and northern Venezuela today.

Meteorologist: Claude Aultman