Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 4 is the eastern extent of a monsoon trough. Over the next several days, the disturbance should become better defined and start moving slowly to the northwest. This should take it toward the northwest Caribbean by next Tuesday or Wednesday. Thereafter, it is likely to move into the Gulf of Mexico, though there is a high degree of uncertainty beyond then. Environmental conditions may be marginally favorable for limited development to occur. The computer models do not agree on development. Some insist upon a tropical storm forming while others indicate no development. Given the uncertainty, and the fact that the system remains poorly defined, we are keeping the chance of development at 30 percent. Regardless of development, there should be increased tropical moisture flowing into the Gulf of Mexico late next week.

Disturbance 5 has formed along 54W, or about 480 miles east of Trinidad. The disturbance is moving to the west at 15 to 18 mph. There are no signs of organization. Development is not expected. However, the disturbance is likely to bring showers and possible thunderstorms to Trinidad, Tobago, as well as northern Venezuela tomorrow.

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt