Current Location: 30.2N, 85.8W
Geographic Reference: Approaching the Coast Near Panama City, FL
Movement: North at 7 mph
Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 50 miles
Organizational Trend: Slight weakening past 6 hours
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
- The center of Alberto is currently approaching the coast near Panama City.
- Tropical storm-force winds are generally confined to offshore.
- The flood threat across the southeast U.S. is diminishing.
Our Forecast
Data from a recon plane this morning indicate that Alberto’s winds peaked overnight. Since sunrise, Alberto’s winds have slowly diminished as its heavier squalls moved ashore. Currently, Alberto is still producing some tropical storm-force winds out over the water south of Apalachicola, but most coastal observation stations are reporting winds well below tropical storm strength. Alberto’s strongest winds are located between Apalachicola and the northwestern Florida Peninsula, where we have seen some gusts to tropical storm strength over the past few hours. In addition, squalls in the Panama City area have recently produced wind gusts between 40 and 45 mph, but no sustained tropical storm-force winds have been reported there.
Once Alberto’s center moves fully inland this afternoon, we expect winds to decrease rapidly. However, southerly winds across the northeast Gulf south and east of Apalachicola will likely remain in the 20 mph to 30 mph range until early Tuesday. Winds around Alberto’s center will generally run between 10 mph and 20 mph as the center crosses into southern Alabama tonight.
The dry air that was entrained into Alberto’s core over the past 12-18 hours has significantly reduced the heavy rainfall potential across the southeast U.S. There may be some locations which receive 3-6 inches of rain through Tuesday, but most areas will see well below that range.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Destin to Apalachicola, FL – Scattered brief power outages are possible due to wind gusts to tropical storm strength this afternoon. No significant flooding is expected.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by 6PM CDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 9PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.20N | 85.80W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Subtropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | 6PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.70N | 85.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Subtropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 6 | 9PM CDT Mon May 28 | 31.20N | 85.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Subtropical Storm | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 12 | 3AM CDT Tue May 29 | 32.60N | 86.00W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Subtropical Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 9AM CDT Tue May 29 | 33.90N | 86.10W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Tue May 29 | 35.50N | 86.40W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
