Current Location: 28.9N, 86.3W
Geographic Reference: 95 miles SW of Panama City, FL
Movement: Northwest at 9 mph
Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
- Landfall is expected early this afternoon around Ft. Walton with 65 mph winds.
- Tropical storm force winds should spread over the coast later this morning.
- There remains a threat of flooding rains.
Our Forecast
Aircraft data from a few hours ago indicated that Alberto has not intensified any further. In addition, there continues to be only a few squalls near the center. There likely will be a slight increase in the squall activity later this morning. This would allow Alberto to intensify slightly, as is forecast. Winds at landfall are likely to be around 65 mph. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall.
There has been no major change to the forecast track. Alberto is forecast to move inland in the vicinity of Ft. Walton during the early afternoon hours. After landfall, a motion to the north-northwest is likely, taking Alberto through Alabama and into Tennessee.
Tropical storm force wind gusts are likely occurring within a rainband that is currently moving over parts of the Florida Panhandle. Sustained tropical storm force winds are likely later this morning. In addition to the wind, there remains a threat of flooding rainfall, especially for the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon/Viosca Knoll/Mobile – Some squalls may occur through the afternoon hours. Gusts to tropical storm force may occur within any squalls.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Panhandle through Southern Alabama – Widespread power outages are likely near where the center makes landfall. Some damage, mainly to signs, is also possible. Significant travel delays could occur in the areas that receive the highest rainfall totals.
An intermediate advisory will be issued at 6 AM CDT. The next full advisory will be issued at 9 AM CDT
Meteorologist: Derek Ortt
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3AM CDT Mon May 28 | 28.90N | 86.30W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Subtropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 12 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.50N | 86.60W | 65 mph | 80 mph | Subtropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 24 | 3AM CDT Tue May 29 | 32.50N | 87.00W | 35 mph | 40 mph | Subtropical Storm | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 3PM CDT Tue May 29 | 35.00N | 87.40W | 25 mph | 30 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
