Current Location: 28.1N, 85.1W
Geographic Reference: 100 miles south of Apalachicola, FL
Movement: North-northwest at 15 mph
Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Organizational Trend: No significant change past 6 hours
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
- Alberto has jogged a little northwest over the past few hours.
- Landfall will occur on the Florida Panhandle a little west of Panama City around 9am CDT tomorrow.
- Max sustained winds at landfall are predicted to be 50 mph.
Our Forecast
Satellite imagery over the past 3-5 hours indicates that dry air at multiple levels is being entrained into the southern and western sides of Alberto. The only remaining squalls near Alberto’s center are located to the southwest and west of the center. Dry air will continue to be entrained into Alberto’s center up until landfall tomorrow morning. The effect of the dry air entrainment will be twofold. First, without strong squalls over the center it will be difficult for Alberto to strengthen significantly prior to landfall Monday morning. Second, the dry air will reduce the amount of rainfall along the immediate track of the storm.
Alberto has been jogging a bit to the northwest over the past few hours with a forward speed of close to 15 mph. We think that a more NNW-NW motion will resume soon, but the northwest jog means that the center may cross the coast a little west of Panama City, Florida. In addition, the landfall will be delayed by a few hours, perhaps closer to 9am CDT. Max sustained winds at landfall are predicted to be near 50 mph.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon/Viosca Knoll/Mobile – No squalls expected. Winds will remain below tropical storm strength.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Heavy rainfall is expected to occur from this afternoon through much of Monday. This may lead to periods of street flooding, resulting in travel delays.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Alabama – Scattered power outages are expected near where Alberto makes landfall. Significant travel delays are expected due to potentially heavy rainfall tonight and Monday.
Our next advisory will be issued by 9PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 3PM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.10N | 85.10W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Subtropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | 9PM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.80N | 85.30W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | 3AM CDT Mon May 28 | 29.50N | 85.60W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | 9AM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.30N | 86.00W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 24 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.90N | 86.40W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 3AM CDT Tue May 29 | 32.40N | 87.10W | 25 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 48 | 3PM CDT Tue May 29 | 34.50N | 87.40W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | 3AM CDT Wed May 30 | 36.60N | 87.00W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
