Current Location: 26.9N, 84.2W
Geographic Reference: 135 miles SW of Tampa, FL
Movement: North-northwest at 13 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles
Organizational Trend: Very slowly becoming better-organized
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
- Alberto appears to be transitioning to a tropical storm. This will make it easier for Alberto to intensify.
- Landfall will occur on the central Florida Panhandle between 10AM CDT and 3PM CDT.
- The heaviest rain threat remains near and to the right of the track.
Our Forecast
Satellite imagery and reconnaissance data indicate that Alberto has acquired tropical characteristics, meaning its wind field is contracting and heavier squalls are developing near the center. In addition, the plane just reported that air temperature inside the center is about 6 degrees warmer than outside the center, which means Alberto has acquired a warm core, typical of a tropical cyclone. As a tropical cyclone with squalls near the center, it will be easier for Alberto to strengthen as it moves toward the coast today. Our forecast takes Alberto’s winds to 60 mph prior to reaching the coast.
The relatively quick forward speed this morning means that Alberto will be approaching the Florida Panhandle tonight. We do expect a NNW-NW motion to begin shortly. The exact timing of landfall is a bit uncertain due to the shape of the Florida Panhandle. Landfall will occur somewhere between Panama City and Apalachicola. If the landfall is close to Apalachicola, then it may occur by 9AM CDT tomorrow. A landfall near Panama City would be early Monday afternoon.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon/Viosca Knoll/Mobile – No squalls expected. Winds will remain below tropical storm strength.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Heavy rainfall is expected to occur for much of the day. This will likely lead to periods of street flooding, resulting in travel delays. Winds may gust to tropical storm force around Tampa Bay, causing scattered power outages.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Alabama – Widespread power outages are expected near where Alberto makes landfall. Major travel delays are expected for the area that receives the heaviest rains.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Sun May 27 | 26.90N | 84.20W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Subtropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 6 | 3PM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.00N | 84.50W | 45 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.70N | 84.90W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 18 | 3AM CDT Mon May 28 | 29.40N | 85.20W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.00N | 85.60W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 30 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.60N | 85.90W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Mon May 28 | 31.20N | 86.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Tue May 29 | 33.10N | 86.90W | 25 mph | 30 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Tue May 29 | 35.30N | 87.60W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
