Current Location: 20N, 87.2W
Geographic Reference: 40 miles south of Cozumel, MX
Movement: North at 5 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better-Organized
Forecast Confidence: Average

A ship report east of Cozumel, MX indicates that winds across the northwest Caribbean well to the northeast of the weak low-level center have increased to at least 40 mph. Because of this, the National Hurricane Center is classifying the system as Subtropical Storm Alberto. The subtropical designation means that the squalls are displaced well away from the weak center, as opposed to a typical tropical storm where the strongest winds are near the center. We expect that Alberto will gradually transition to a tropical storm by Sunday as the wind shear decreases somewhat, allowing the squalls to develop closer to the center.

There is no change to the general thinking about Alberto’s track and intensity over the holiday weekend. Moderate wind shear should prevent any significant strengthening until on Sunday, when the storm turns northwest toward the Mississippi/Alabama border.

Our next full advisory will be issued by 3PM CDT

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Lat.	Lon.	Max Sustained Winds	Category
20.00N	87.20W	30 mph	Subtropical Storm