Current Location: 20N, 87.2W
Geographic Reference: Over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
Movement: North-northeast at 6 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – no change in the past 12 hours
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
- There is a 90 percent chance that Disturbance 3 will become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Sunday morning.
- The storm is still expected to be sheared with the heaviest squalls and highest winds located to the east of the center.
- There is a significant flood risk to the central Gulf Coast early next week due to its predicted slow movement near landfall.
- Little impact is expected from New Orleans to Texas.
- Our forecast confidence has been increased to Average in this advisory.
Our Forecast
Surface observations across the northeast Yucatan Peninsula indicate that the center of the disturbance is south of overnight estimates. Our position represents a relocation of the center. Model agreement continues to improve. As a result, we have increased our confidence in the track to average.
The main steering mechanism will be an upper-level low pressure area that is predicted to form south of the mid-Louisiana coast over the weekend. This low should steer the disturbance north-northeastward tonight and Saturday, followed by a turn to the northwest on Sunday morning as the developing storm tracks to the northeast of the upper-level low center. This will take the center inland near the Mississippi/Alabama border on Monday evening. Some slowing of its forward speed is expected as the center nears landfall, followed by an acceleration northward up the Mississippi/Alabama border on Tuesday.
Wind shear should prevent much development of the disturbance over the next 24 hours, but by Saturday evening we think that the disturbance will be organized enough to be classified as a tropical depression. As the center begins tracking northwestward on Sunday morning, wind shear is predicted to drop enough for the depression to become a tropical storm. Peak winds northeast of the center may reach 60 mph Sunday night or Monday morning as the storm heads toward the coast. Although current models are not indicating that the max winds will reach hurricane strength, we cannot rule out that possibility. We estimate that the chances of this storm reaching hurricane intensity are about 20 percent.
Because of the slow movement near landfall, there is a significant risk of very heavy rainfall along the Gulf Coast from southeastern Mississippi east to the central Florida Panhandle and inland for about 100 miles. The heaviest rain is expected from Monday morning through noon on Tuesday. Our forecast is taking the weakening storm northward more quickly than we were thinking yesterday, so the threat of widespread flooding has decreased somewhat this morning.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon to Lund Canyon – Squalls are possible late Saturday night through Monday with wind gusts to 50 mph. The strongest winds will remain east and northeast of this area. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.
Main Pass/Viosca Knoll to Mobile Leases – Heavy squalls and winds of up to 50 mph will be possible Sunday night and Monday. Wind gusts may reach up to 70 mph in squalls to the east of the track. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Rain bands capable of producing heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather are expected on Saturday through Monday, resulting in brief street flooding and isolated power outages.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Mississippi and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday, resulting in widespread travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce scattered power outages along the immediate coast of Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Fri May 25 | 20.00N | 87.20W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Fri May 25 | 21.20N | 86.80W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Sat May 26 | 22.90N | 86.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Sat May 26 | 25.10N | 85.80W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Sun May 27 | 27.60N | 85.90W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Sun May 27 | 29.00N | 87.40W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Mon May 28 | 29.80N | 88.20W | 60 mph | 70 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 84 | 9PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.40N | 88.50W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Tue May 29 | 31.30N | 88.90W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 108 | 9PM CDT Tue May 29 | 32.70N | 88.60W | 25 mph | 35 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 120 | 9AM CDT Wed May 30 | 34.30N | 87.90W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
