Current Location: 20.3N, 87.4W
Geographic Reference: Over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula
Movement: North-northeast at 5 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – no changes past 12 hours
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Key Points
- There is a 90 percent chance that Disturbance 3 will become a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Sunday.
- The system is still expected to be highly sheared with the heaviest squalls and highest winds being east of the center.
- The system will present a significant flood risk to the central Gulf Coast early next week due to its predicted slow movement.
- Little impact is expected from west of New Orleans to Texas.
Our Forecast
Disturbance 3 remains disorganized over the Yucatan Peninsula. The system is expected to become better organized over the next few days as it generally tracks to the north over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression over the weekend and could be a tropical storm as early as Saturday night or Sunday morning. We have increased the forecast peak intensity to 60 mph based on the latest model guidance. Although the risk is low at this time, the possibility of the system becoming a hurricane is increasing, especially if the system were to track farther west than forecast.
Heavy rainfall will be the main concern as the system is forecast to be slow moving while approaching the central Gulf coast. Outer rainbands from the system could impact the Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle as early as Sunday afternoon. By the time the system reaches the Gulf Coast near Mississippi and Alabama, it is expected to be a tropical storm with winds near 60 mph in the heaviest squalls. Though some impacts from wind are a concern, it is the heavy rainfall within the rainbands that is of most concern. The best chance of heavy rainfall from the panhandle of Florida to southern Alabama and southern Mississippi is on Monday and Tuesday. If the system tracks slow enough, rainfall could linger into Wednesday. The heaviest squalls are expected to be east of Louisiana. However, locally heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding will be possible in southeast Louisiana, especially on Monday and Tuesday.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 89W) – Widespread squalls will be possible Saturday night through Monday with wind gusts to 60 mph to 70 mph in the strongest squalls along with rough seas. The last full day of good flying weather will be Saturday.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Rainbands capable of producing heavy rainfall and isolated severe weather are expected on Saturday through Monday, resulting in brief street flooding and isolated power outages.
Florida Panhandle through Southern Mississippi and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Tuesday or Wednesday, resulting in widespread travel issues. Wind gusts in squalls may produce scattered power outages along the immediate coast of Alabama, Mississippi, and Florida.
Our next advisory will be issued by 3 AM CDT.
Meteorologist: Claude Aultman
| Forecast Confidence: Below Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9PM CDT Thu May 24 | 20.30N | 87.40W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 | 9AM CDT Fri May 25 | 21.20N | 86.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 24 | 9PM CDT Fri May 25 | 22.30N | 86.60W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Disturbance | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 9AM CDT Sat May 26 | 23.60N | 86.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 9PM CDT Sat May 26 | 25.20N | 86.40W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 60 | 9AM CDT Sun May 27 | 27.10N | 87.00W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 72 | 9PM CDT Sun May 27 | 28.50N | 87.70W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 84 | 9AM CDT Mon May 28 | 29.60N | 88.20W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 96 | 9PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.50N | 88.60W | 60 mph | 75 mph | Tropical Storm | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 108 | 9AM CDT Tue May 29 | 31.40N | 89.00W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 120 | 9PM CDT Tue May 29 | 32.20N | 89.30W | 25 mph | 30 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 132 | 9AM CDT Wed May 30 | 33.30N | 89.60W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
