Current Location: 18.4N, 85.8W
Geographic Reference: 150 miles east of northern Belize
Movement: North-northwest at 6 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Below Average

Key Points
1. Disturbance 3 is predicted to become a weak tropical storm in the eastern Gulf on Saturday.
2. Strong southwesterly wind shear should keep most squalls and stronger wind east of the track.
3. Heavy rain is possible from the Florida Peninsula north into Georgia and Alabama between Friday and Monday.
4. Little impact is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi west to Texas.

Our Forecast
Disturbance 3 (Invest 90L) has changed little in organization over the past several hours as it remains a broad and weak area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is moving slowly to the north-northward toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Our forecast takes the disturbance into the southeastern Gulf on Thursday afternoon. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear across the central and eastern Gulf through the coming weekend will impact the disturbance, keeping most of its squalls and significant winds east of the track.

We think that the disturbance may become organized enough by Friday or Saturday that it is upgraded to a tropical depression. Development chances have increased to 70 percent that the disturbance develops into at least a tropical depression. Winds in squalls out over the water east of the center could reach tropical storm strength by Saturday afternoon as the center approaches the Florida Panhandle. Once inland, the storm should quickly weaken to a remnant low pressure area. The unfavorable upper-level environment across the eastern Gulf is expected to prevent this system from becoming a strong tropical storm or a hurricane.

Whether or not this disturbance is upgraded to a depression or a tropical storm, its impacts across the eastern Gulf and the southeast U.S. will be the same. Heavy rain is likely across the Florida Peninsula between Thursday night and Sunday. This heavy rain will spread north into Georgia and Alabama over the holiday weekend. No tropical storm-force winds are expected inland across Florida. All tropical storm-force winds will likely be confined to squalls out over the water to the east of the track.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 88W) – Widespread squalls Friday to Sunday morning with wind gusts to 50 kts possible, along with rough seas at times.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday through Sunday, resulting in street flooding and travel issues.
Florida Panhandle to Southern Georgia and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Monday, resulting in travel issues.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9AM CDT.

Meteorologist: Claude Aultman