Current Location: 17.5N, 85W
Geographic Reference: 200 miles east of northern Belize
Movement: North-northwest at 8 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Organizational Trend: Very slowly becoming better-organized
Forecast Confidence: Below Average
Key Points
1. Disturbance 3 is predicted to become a weak tropical storm in the eastern Gulf on Saturday.
2. Strong southwesterly wind shear should keep most squalls and stronger wind east of the track.
3. Heavy rain is possible from the Florida Peninsula north into Georgia and Alabama between Friday and Monday.
4. Little impact is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi west to Texas.
Our Forecast
Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that a broad, weak low pressure area has developed in the western Caribbean Sea. We identify this system as Disturbance 3. The National Hurricane Center has identified this disturbance as Invest 90L. The disturbance is moving slowly northward toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Our forecast takes the disturbance into the southeastern Gulf on Thursday afternoon. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear across the central and eastern Gulf through the coming weekend will be impacting the disturbance, keeping most of its squalls and significant winds east of the track.
We think that the disturbance may become organized enough by Friday or Saturday that it is upgraded to a tropical depression. Development chances are estimated to be 60 percent that the disturbance develops into at least a tropical depression. Winds in squalls out over the water east of the center could reach tropical storm strength by Saturday afternoon as the center approaches the mid Florida Panhandle. Once inland, the storm should quickly weaken to a remnant low pressure area. The unfavorable upper-level environment across the eastern Gulf is expected to prevent this system from becoming a strong tropical storm or a hurricane.
Whether or not this disturbance is upgraded to a depression or a tropical storm, its impacts across the eastern Gulf and the southeast U.S. will be the same. Heavy rain is likely across the Florida Peninsula between Thursday night and Sunday. This heavy rain will spread north into Georgia and Alabama over the holiday weekend.. No tropical storm-force winds are expected inland across Florida. All tropical storm-force wind will likely be confined to squalls out over the water to the east of the track.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 88W) – Widespread squalls Friday to Sunday morning with wind gusts to 50 kts possible, along with rough seas at times.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday, resulting in street flooding and travel issues.
Florida Panhandle to Southern Georgia and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms from Sunday through Monday, resulting in travel issues.
Our next forecast will be issued by 9PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
