Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch

Disturbance 3 is located in the southwest Caribbean along 81.5W. It has been moving slowly to the west-northwest during the past 24 hours. A more northwesterly motion should begin later today. The disturbance should move over Nicaragua and Honduras and remain over land until the early part of next week. At that time, it is expected to move into the northwest Caribbean and then move toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico or Florida. We still do not see much of a threat to the northwest Gulf of Mexico.

Environmental conditions are not expected to be all that favorable for tropical development. Strong wind shear is likely over the Caribbean and Gulf. Therefore, we still assess the chance of tropical development to be 25 percent, despite most of the models indicating an area of low pressure will form. Regardless of tropical development, heavy rainfall is possible over Memorial Day weekend for the Florida Peninsula. Severe thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out.

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt