The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released the update below yesterday to document the low river stage conditions. The LMRFC provided the quoted text below along with the attachment to update historic low water readings and the updated river stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).
“Since the last briefing we have seen additional rainfall over the Ohio and Upper Mississippi, keeping the lower river out of low flow. Cairo has just crested at 28.7 and will fall for the next week before additional rain could turn Cairo back around again.
The low stages in the slide reflect only 48 hours of rainfall. Looking into the extended, there is a good chance that we will keep Cairo above 12 ft at least through mid January. The lower Mississippi will also remain out of the extreme low flow as well.
This will be the last report for this Low Flow Season as the current forecasts keep us adove critical low stage/flow levels and as we go into the Winter months will likely not fall to these levels again until after Spring.” (Emphasis supplied)
The supporting information below was prepared by the Big River Coalition:
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1000 hours today was 2.85 feet with a 24-hour change of + 0.18 feet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts that stages will continue to rise until cresting at 5.7 feet on January 2 and is then expected to begin a slow fall to 2.5 feet on January 20 (2025).
*Please remember the extended forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.
The predictive map below is the forecast for the 168-hour (7 Days) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF).
“Forecasters at the WPC and its predecessor organizations have been making Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts since 1960. Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts, or QPFs, depict the amount of liquid precipitation expected to fall in a defined period of time. In the case of snow or ice, QPF represents the amount of liquid that will be measured when the precipitation is melted. Precipitation amounts can vary significantly over short distances, especially when thunderstorms occur, and for this reason QPFs issued by the WPC are defined as the expected “areal average” (on a 20 x 20 km grid) in inches.”
