The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center (LMRFC) released this update (yesterday) to document the low river stage conditions. The LMRFC provided the following text along with the attachment to supplement this updatethat details low water stage predictions from Cairo (IL) to Baton Rouge (LA).
“Rainfall over the past week has allowed the middle Mississippi River to continue to rise and forecast stages on the lower Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers will be the highest levels seen since late August to early September.
The middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers have risen over 3 feet since last Friday. Cairo, IL was reading 9.8ft this morning. The lower Ohio River will continue to rise another two feet and crest this weekend at a stage slightly above 12ft. The last time Cairo, IL was above 12ft was two months ago on September 1st.
The rises will continue downstream on the lower Mississippi River through the middle of November.
The 7 day rainfall forecast shows .25 to 1.25 inches of rainfall over the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. The bulk of the rain occurs late this weekend into early next week.
The 16 day rainfall forecast is showing additional rises during the second and third weeks of November. The rises from the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers does not show Cairo, IL going higher than the current forecast crest but it would keep stages elevated and above 10ft for most of November.
The 16 day rainfall forecast doesn’t end the low water conditions on the lower Mississippi River but it continues to keep levels well above the record lows that occurred a few weeks ago.” (Emphasis supplied)
The Carrolton Gage (New Orleans) reading at 1000 hours today was 3.28 feet with a 24-hour change of + 0.70 feet.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (28-Day) for the Carrollton Gage issued today forecasts stages will reach 3.9 feet tomorrow and then erratic fall to 3.5 feet on November 4 and will then begin another rise projected to crest at 4.2 feet on November 18 and then to resume a fall to 3.1 feet November 29 (2023). Long-range forecasts only include precipitation expected to fall in the next 48-hours.