Tropical Storm Michael Track Chart, Advisory #25

Current Location: 34.4N, 80.7W
Geographic Reference: 20 miles south of Columbia, SC
Movement: Northeast at 25 mph
Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 9 out of a possible 50 points (6 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 195 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 505 miles
Organizational Trend: Weakening
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Michael’s rapid forward speed will limit rainfall totals along its path.
2. Most of Michael’s tropical storm force winds are located along the immediate coast well southeast and east of the center.

Our Forecast
Surface observations across the southeast U.S. indicate that Michael’s tropical storm-force winds are generally confined to the immediate coast of Georgia near the South Carolina border, where a band of showers is streaming into the coast. We saw one observation of 45 mph wind on the coast of Georgia an hour ago. Inland winds around Michael’s center are below tropical storm strength, with the exception of some wind gusts in heavier squalls.

Michael is accelerating northeastward at 25 mph this morning. By late this afternoon, its forward speed will increase to over 30 mph. This will limit the amount of rain it will drop across the Carolinas and Virginia before moving offshore near the North Carolina/Virginia border this evening. After moving offshore, Michael will be transitioning into a very large non-tropical low pressure system that will accelerate out to sea at nearly 60 mph, passing south of Newfoundland on Saturday morning.

Expected Impacts Inland
Georgia, the Carolinas, and Eastern Virginia: Moderate to heavy rain today may cause some local travel issues. Power outages will be limited to the immediate coast where winds may still reach tropical storm strength.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by 1 PM EDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 4 PM EDT.

Meteorologists: Chris Hebert / Cameron Self

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Thu Oct 11 34.40N 80.70W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
6 3PM CDT Thu Oct 11 35.70N 78.60W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 2 2 4
12 9PM CDT Thu Oct 11 36.70N 76.00W 45 mph 65 mph Tropical Storm 2 2 4
18 3AM CDT Fri Oct 12 37.90N 73.00W 50 mph 65 mph Extratropical Storm 2 2 4
24 9AM CDT Fri Oct 12 39.00N 69.90W 60 mph 70 mph Extratropical Storm 4 3 7
30 3PM CDT Fri Oct 12 40.80N 65.40W 65 mph 75 mph Extratropical Storm 5 3 8
36 9PM CDT Fri Oct 12 42.70N 60.40W 65 mph 75 mph Extratropical Storm 6 3 9
42 3AM CDT Sat Oct 13 44.20N 54.50W 60 mph 70 mph Extratropical Storm 6 3 9
48 9AM CDT Sat Oct 13 45.50N 47.50W 50 mph 65 mph Extratropical Storm 3 2 5

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.