Atlantic Daily Briefing

Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Leslie 80 mph Category 1 28.4N 40.1W
Michael 60 mph Tropical Storm 33.2N 82.4W
Nadine 65 mph Tropical Storm 14.1N 33.3W

Hurricane Leslie is located about 1000 miles to the southwest of the Azores. It is moving to the east-northeast at 10 mph. Maximum winds are near 80 mph. Leslie will remain a hurricane over the next day or two as it continues on a track to the east-northeast. The long range track remains uncertain. There are two possible scenarios. Some models favor a track toward Morocco or Portugal. Other models indicate that Leslie will not be captured by the trough that is currently steering it eastward, and it will turn back to the west in a few days and slowly dissipate. Our forecast track favors a turn back to the west with the system dissipating early next week. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Tropical Storm Michael was located 30 miles southwest of Augusta, Georgia as of 4 AM EDT. It is moving to the northeast at 24 mph. Maximum winds are near 60 mph. Michael will likely weaken as it moves across the Carolinas today. It will move offshore the North Carolina and Virginia border tonight and accelerate into the North Atlantic on Friday. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Tropical Storm Nadine is located about 600 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving to the northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph. Nadine will weaken over the next few days and will dissipate this weekend. It is not expected to affect any land areas. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 52 has formed over the Bay of Campeche near 19N, 94W. This is a weak disturbance that has formed from an active monsoon trough across southern Mexico and Central America. It is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. There is a 30 percent chance that the disturbance could briefly develop before moving into central or southern Mexico during the day Friday. If it were to develop, it will likely remain weak due to strong upper level winds across the western and southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance 49 is located south of Hispaniola. it is moving to the west near 15 mph. The disturbance should slow down over the western Caribbean during the next few days. It may interact with the monsoon trough over the southwestern Caribbean. Environmental conditions are expected to become more favorable for tropical development over the weekend and next week. There is a 45 percent chance of development. Any system that develops could threaten Central America, the Yucatan, and the Bay of Campeche. There are no indications that this potential system would move toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance 48 is located along 54W. It is moving to the west near 12 mph. No tropical development is expected as it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

Meteorologists: Claude Aultman / David Piech