Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Leslie 65 mph Tropical Storm 32.2N 43.9W
Michael 90 mph Category 1 23.8N 85.7W

Leslie is located about 1550 miles west of Madeira. Leslie is moving to the south-southeast near 13 mph. This track should continue for a day or so before resuming an eastward track. The long range forecast is uncertain. However, there could be a threat to Madeira in about 5 days. Winds are 65 mph. Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane once again. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

Michael is about 445 miles south of Panama City as of 3 AM CDT. It is moving to the north-northwest near 10 mph. Michael is forecast to make landfall tomorrow afternoon near Panama City, Florida. Thereafter, it should move through Georgia and the Carolinas. Winds are near 90 mph. A new reconnaissance aircraft is approaching Michael. Satellite imagery indicates that Michael may be intensifying once again. An updated intensity estimate will be provided with our intermediate advisory, which will be issued by 6 AM CDT. Winds at landfall are forecast to be 120 mph. For full details on Michael, please refer to our latest full advisory, which is available on your StormGeo web portal.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 49 is along 67W, in the central Caribbean. It is moving slightly north of due west near 14 mph. The forward speed should slow further as it interacts with the same monsoon trough that spawned Michael. The combination of this disturbance and the monsoon trough could lead to tropical development. There is a 35 percent chance of tropical development in the western Caribbean within the next 7 days, though the window for development will not open until the weekend. If development occurs, the most likely motion will be a track toward Belize or the southern Yucatan and then possibly the Bay of Campeche. There are no indications that any system would follow Michael into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Disturbance 51 is centered near 9.5N, 29.2W, which is several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. The system is moving to the west-northwest near 7 mph. A turn more to the north is likely by the end of the week. There is no threat to land. The disturbance has become better organized. There is a 90 percent chance of tropical development.

Disturbance 48 is located along 45W. It is moving to the west near 10 mph. There are no signs of organization. No development is expected.

Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Eduardo Bosch