Tropical Storm Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #17
 

Current Location: 12.1N, 53.9W
Geographic Reference: 375 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West-northwest at 17 mph
Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Kirk may weaken to a depression as it reaches the Windward Islands on Thursday.
2. The primary impact on the islands will be from heavy rainfall.

Our Forecast
Tropical Storm Kirk continues moving steadily westward toward the eastern Caribbean this morning. An overnight wind satellite pass did find a closed circulation with winds to 45 mph to the northeast of the center. As Kirk passes north of Barbados on Thursday morning, it will be encountering increasingly strong westerly wind shear, which should lead to steady weakening to a tropical depression as it passes north of St. Lucia on Thursday evening. Even stronger wind shear in the eastern Caribbean should lead to the dissipation of Kirk on Friday. The primary threat to the central Lesser Antilles will be from potentially heavy rainfall as Kirk passes on Thursday.

Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.

Puerto Rico: What is left of Kirk may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity for Puerto Rico on Friday. Widespread significant impacts are not expected. However, locally heavy rainfall is possible.

Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Wed Sep 26 12.10N 53.90W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
12 9PM CDT Wed Sep 26 12.90N 56.80W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
24 9AM CDT Thu Sep 27 13.80N 59.20W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
36 9PM CDT Thu Sep 27 14.50N 61.50W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
48 9AM CDT Fri Sep 28 15.10N 63.90W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
60 9PM CDT Fri Sep 28 15.50N 66.20W 30 mph 40 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.