Remnants of Kirk Track Chart, Advisory #14

Current Location: 11.6N, 49.3W
Geographic Reference: 690 miles east of Barbados
Movement: West at 21 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average

Chance of Redevelopment: 70 percent

Key Points
1. Kirk remains well organized.
2. Regardless of classification, gusty winds and locally heavy rains are expected for the Windward Islands.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate in the eastern Caribbean late Thursday or Friday.

Our Forecast
Kirk has changed little this afternoon. There remains a broad circulation with a large area of squalls near the broad center. However, satellite data indicate that the circulation is not fully closed. Therefore, Kirk remains a remnant trough and not a tropical storm. That said, Kirk will likely become a tropical storm again later tonight. As Kirk approaches the Caribbean, it is expected to encounter strong wind shear. Thus, it is forecast to lose organization as it approaches the Windward Islands Thursday morning. Once it moves into the Caribbean, Kirk is forecast to once again revert back to a remnant trough.

Kirk’s rapid motion slightly north of due west should continue for 12 to 24 more hours. Therefore, it should slow slightly. Our new forecast track is a bit faster than the previous. Kirk is now forecast to pass just north of Barbados before sunrise on Thursday. It is then expected to pass through the remainder of the Windward Islands late Thursday morning.

Even if Kirk does not become a tropical storm once again, gusty winds and locally heavy rains will occur for the Windward Islands.

Expected Impacts on Land
Windward Islands: Localized flooding may occur due to heavy rains. Any power outages are likely to be isolated in nature.

Our next advisory will be issued by 10 PM AST / 9 PM CDT

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3PM CDT Tue Sep 25 11.60N 49.30W 40 mph 50 mph Remnant Low 1 1 2
12 3AM CDT Wed Sep 26 12.20N 53.00W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
24 3PM CDT Wed Sep 26 13.00N 56.50W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
36 3AM CDT Thu Sep 27 13.80N 60.00W 45 mph 60 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
48 3PM CDT Thu Sep 27 14.00N 62.50W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
60 3AM CDT Fri Sep 28 14.20N 65.50W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1
72 3PM CDT Fri Sep 28 14.50N 68.00W 35 mph 45 mph Remnant Low 0 1 1

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.