Geographic Reference: 450 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands
Movement: West at 22 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 40 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady – Weakening Slightly Since Yesterday
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Kirk may reach the southern Lesser Antilles as a tropical storm next Thursday.
2. Kirk is predicted to dissipate north of Venezuela next Friday or Saturday.
Our Forecast
The National Hurricane Center has upgraded our Disturbance 43 to Tropical Storm Kirk based upon a wind satellite pass overnight that indicated a small area of 40 mph wind northeast of the center. Kirk’s rapid westerly movement will likely result in it weakening over the next 24 hours. Our forecast indicates that Kirk may weaken to a depression by tomorrow morning. When Kirk begins slowing down on Wednesday, it could regain tropical storm strength as it approaches the southern Lesser Antilles. However, increasing wind shear across the eastern Caribbean will likely lead to weakening and dissipation north of Venezuela next Friday or Saturday. There is currently no model support for Kirk reaching the Gulf of Mexico or the southeast U.S. Coast.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM AST / 3 PM CDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 10AM CDT Sat Sep 22 | 8.30N | 23.60W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 10PM CDT Sat Sep 22 | 8.70N | 27.40W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 24 | 10AM CDT Sun Sep 23 | 9.10N | 31.20W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | 10PM CDT Sun Sep 23 | 9.20N | 35.50W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 48 | 10AM CDT Mon Sep 24 | 9.30N | 39.80W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 72 | 10AM CDT Tue Sep 25 | 10.00N | 48.10W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 96 | 10AM CDT Wed Sep 26 | 10.80N | 54.50W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 120 | 10AM CDT Thu Sep 27 | 12.50N | 60.00W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 144 | 10AM CDT Fri Sep 28 | 13.30N | 66.40W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 168 | 10AM CDT Sat Sep 29 | 13.30N | 72.90W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
