Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Tropical Depression Eleven 35 mph Tropical Depression 13.0N 53.8W

Tropical Depression Eleven
Tropical Depression Eleven is located about 480 miles east of St. Lucia. It is moving to the west at 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. The depression is encountering strong westerly wind shear and will likely weaken to a remnant low before reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Please see our latest advisory for more information.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 39 is located over the western Caribbean along 85W. The disturbance is moving to the west at 20 mph. The disturbance is producing scattered thunderstorms across the northwestern Caribbean and Central America. There are no signs of organization. Tropical development is not expected as it moves across Central America and southern Mexico today.

Disturbance 43 is located 500 miles to the south of the Cape Verde Islands near 7.7N, 22.2W. It is moving to the west at 15 mph. There is a 70 percent chance that it could become a tropical depression over the next few days. It may encounter strong wind shear when it reaches the Lesser Antilles in about 6 to 7 days.

Disturbance 42 is a weak low-pressure system located about 225 miles south of Bermuda. It is moving to the southwest at 9 mph. There is no thunderstorm activity with the low at this time. There is a 20 percent chance of subtropical or tropical development. The low is expected to pass to the southwest of Bermuda this weekend. Then, it may pass near or to the east of the Outer Banks of North Carolina by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to become more unfavorable for development for the middle part of next week.

A non-tropical low has developed along a frontal system about 850 miles to the west-southwest of the Azores. This is identified as Disturbance 44. We think that there is a 70 percent chance that it could become a subtropical or tropical storm early next week. The system is forecast to meander over the central Atlantic for most of next week and not affect any land areas.

Meteorologists: Claude Aultman / David Piech