Current Location: 25.2N, 60W
Geographic Reference: 1245 miles SE of Wilmington, NC
Movement: West-northwest at 12 mph
Max Winds: 110 mph gusting to 130 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 15 out of a possible 50 points (5 size, 10 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 32 out of a possible 50 points (13 size, 19 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles
Organizational Trend: Steadily Strengthening
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
1. Florence is forecast to make landfall on the North Carolina coast, in the vicinity of Wilmington as a strong category 3 hurricane Thursday evening
2. Severe damage from wind and tidal surge is expected.
3. A major inland flood event is expected for eastern and central North Carolina, as well as southern Virginia.
Our Forecast
There are no major changes in this advisory. Florence continues to steadily strengthen this morning as it makes the predicted gradual turn to the northwest. Our forecast takes the center of Florence inland near Wilmington, NC late Thursday afternoon or early Thursday evening. Once inland, Florence will steadily weaken as it tracks very slowly northward across central North Carolina on Friday and Saturday. This very slow northward movement after landfall would result in extremely heavy rainfall for central and eastern North Carolina and southern Virginia from Thursday through Saturday.
Florence continues to gradually intensify. Winds are now estimated to be 110 mph. Continued intensification is forecast due to very favorable environmental conditions. Florence is predicted to peak with winds of 150 mph Wednesday afternoon. Some weakening due to increasing wind shear is likely on Thursday as Florence approaches the coast. Our forecast is for Florence to be a very strong category 3 hurricane with 125 mph sustained winds and gusts to 150 mph at landfall. However, there is some chance that it could strike as a category 4 hurricane. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected.
Expected Impacts on Land
North Carolina: Severe wind and tidal surge damage is expected, especially along the coast of the Onslow Bay. Significant tidal surge damage may occur for the southern Outer Banks, with less damage likely for the northern Outer Banks. Major damage from inland flooding is also expected for central and eastern North Carolina.
Southern and SE Virginia : Major flood damage is likely for south central Virginia, with widespread street flooding likely for southeast Virginia. Coastal areas of Virginia will likely experience very high waves resulting in some coastal flooding.
DelMarVa Peninsula: Some flooding is possible for the Delmarva Peninsula, with the greatest threat being located in the Virginia portion of the peninsula.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Offshore Delaware to North Carolina: Combined seas as high as 35 feet to 45 feet may occur within 100 miles of the track of Florence on Wednesday into Thursday off the coast of South and North Carolina. Combined seas as high as 20 to 30 feet may occur off the coast of Virginia, Maryland, and Delaware Wednesday through Thursday.
Our next advisory will be issued by 4 PM EDT
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Mon Sep 10 | 25.20N | 60.00W | 110 mph | 130 mph | Category 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Mon Sep 10 | 25.70N | 62.20W | 125 mph | 150 mph | Category 3 | 7 | 13 | 20 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Tue Sep 11 | 26.50N | 65.00W | 140 mph | 160 mph | Category 4 | 11 | 16 | 27 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Tue Sep 11 | 28.00N | 68.20W | 145 mph | 175 mph | Category 4 | 11 | 17 | 28 |
| 48 | 9AM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 29.60N | 71.20W | 150 mph | 180 mph | Category 4 | 11 | 19 | 30 |
| 60 | 9PM CDT Wed Sep 12 | 31.40N | 73.70W | 150 mph | 180 mph | Category 4 | 13 | 19 | 32 |
| 72 | 9AM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 32.80N | 75.90W | 145 mph | 175 mph | Category 4 | 13 | 17 | 30 |
| 84 | 9PM CDT Thu Sep 13 | 34.20N | 77.90W | 120 mph | 145 mph | Category 3 | 11 | 12 | 23 |
| 96 | 9AM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 35.10N | 78.80W | 75 mph | 90 mph | Category 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 |
| 108 | 9PM CDT Fri Sep 14 | 35.80N | 79.20W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Tropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 120 | 9AM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 36.30N | 79.30W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Tropical Depression | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 132 | 9PM CDT Sat Sep 15 | 36.50N | 80.00W | 30 mph | 35 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
