Tropical Storm Gordon Track Chart, Advisory #12

Current Location: 28.4N, 86.7W
Geographic Reference: 190 miles SE of Gulfport, MS
Movement: Northwest at 16 mph
Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles
Organizational Trend: Weakening Slightly
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points
1. Reconnaissance has found that Gordon has weakened over the past 6 hours.
2. It is unlikely, but not impossible, that Gordon will become a hurricane prior to landfall.

Our Forecast
Satellite imagery over the past 6 hours indicates that Gordon has become less organized than it was last evening. Currently, there are two reconnaissance planes inside Gordon. Neither plane is finding any wind above about 50 mph, and all tropical storm-force winds are confined to the northeast quadrant of the storm. To the west of Gordon’s track, winds are generally in the 15 mph to 30 mph range. Both recon planes are also finding that Gordon’s central pressure is steadily rising this morning, a sign of weakening.

With little in the way of inflow, a poor satellite representation, and a slowly rising pressure, we think it is unlikely that Gordon will strengthen much, if at all, prior to landfall around 9pm CDT on the Mississippi coast. Of course, Gordon’s intensity could fluctuate a little up or down over the next 12 hours prior to landfall. Our forecast indicates max sustained winds near 60 mph at landfall, but Gordon’s max wind speed will likely be fluctuating up and down over the next 12 hours prior to landfall . All tropical storm-force winds should be located to the east of the track and of the point of landfall and confined to the immediate coastal counties. Once Gordon moves inland this evening, it should quickly weaken to a tropical depression over southern Mississippi.

The main threat post-landfall is going to be from heavy rainfall, mainly near and east of the track. Rainfall amounts will drop off significantly to the west of the track.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Squalls are starting to affect some of the deepwater lease areas. Conditions will gradually deteriorate through mid-afternoon, followed by steady improvement this evening as Gordon moves inland. Wind gusts in squalls could reach up to 65 mph today, along with locally very rough seas.

Expected Impacts on Land
Southern Mississippi Through Arkansas: Locally heavy rainfall could result in street flooding that leads to travel delays this afternoon through Friday. The greatest risk for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi will be today and tomorrow, while the risk for Arkansas will mainly be Thursday and Friday. Tropical storm-force winds may cause some power outages near where the center makes landfall, along with minor wind damage. Coastal flooding is also expected.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by 12 PM CDT. The next full advisory will be issued at 3 PM CDT.

Meteorologist: Chris Hebert

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9AM CDT Tue Sep 04 28.40N 86.70W 50 mph 65 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
6 3PM CDT Tue Sep 04 29.30N 87.90W 50 mph 65 mph Tropical Storm 1 2 3
12 9PM CDT Tue Sep 04 30.20N 88.90W 60 mph 70 mph Tropical Storm 2 3 5
18 3AM CDT Wed Sep 05 31.00N 89.70W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
24 9AM CDT Wed Sep 05 31.80N 90.50W 30 mph 35 mph Tropical Depression 0 0 0
36 9PM CDT Wed Sep 05 33.00N 91.80W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
48 9AM CDT Thu Sep 06 34.00N 93.00W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
60 9PM CDT Thu Sep 06 34.70N 93.90W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
72 9AM CDT Fri Sep 07 35.70N 94.30W 30 mph 35 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.