NOAA Advisory 8, TS Gordon

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696 
WTNT42 KNHC 040847
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072018
400 AM CDT Tue Sep 04 2018

Gordon has changed little in organization on geostationary
satellite images or on the WSR-88D radar presentation over the past
several hours.  The storm has a small CDO with convective banding
features primarily over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Overall the cloud pattern is indicative of moderate westerly shear
over the system, likely associated with an upper-level trough near
the central Gulf of Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane
Hunter aircraft investigated Gordon a few hours ago and reported
maximum SFMR-measured surface winds of 54 kt.  On this basis the
intensity had been adjusted to 55 kt, which is somewhat above the
latest Dvorak estimates.  It is assumed that the shear will not be
strong enough to inhibit at least some strengthening before
landfall, so the tropical cyclone is still forecast to become a
hurricane later today.  The official forecast, prior to landfall, is
close to the latest LGEM intensity guidance, and near the upper end
of the guidance suite.  Gordon should weaken rapidly after landfall
in the lower Mississippi Valley region.

The motion continues west-northwestward, or 300/15 kt.  There is
little or no change to the NHC track prediction or forecast
reasoning from the previous advisory.  Gordon is expected to move
along the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area
and make landfall along the north-central Gulf of Mexico coast
within 24 hours.  After landfall, the cyclone is forecast to move
northwestward, along the western side of the high, at a reduced
forward speed.  Late in the forecast period Gordon, or its
post-tropical remnant, should turn northward to north-northeastward
as it approaches the mid-latitude westerlies.  The official track
forecast is near the model consensus and very close to the previous
NHC track.

Key Messages:

1. Gordon is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge and
hurricane conditions to portions of the central Gulf Coast where a
Storm Surge Warning and Hurricane Warning are in effect.  Residents
in these areas should listen to advice from their local officials.
All preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion, as tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in
the warning areas this afternoon.

2. Heavy rainfall from Gordon will affect the western Florida
Panhandle, southern  Alabama, southern Mississippi and Louisiana,
where totals could reach as high as 12 inches.  This rainfall could
cause flash flooding.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  04/0900Z 27.7N  85.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  04/1800Z 29.0N  87.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  05/0600Z 30.7N  89.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1800Z 32.2N  91.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0600Z 33.4N  92.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 72H  07/0600Z 34.9N  94.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0600Z 37.0N  94.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0600Z 40.0N  92.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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