Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems

Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
Ernesto 45 mph Subtropical Storm 40.8N 44.1W

Ernesto
Subtropical Storm Ernesto is centered about 605 miles southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. It will accelerate northeastward into the northern North Atlantic over the next couple of days while losing its tropical characteristics. It could produce seas up to 18-20 feet near where it tracks. It is no threat to land. See our latest advisory.

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 28 is along 51W. It is moving west-northwest near 16 mph. The system continues to be relatively organized. We have raised development chances from near zero to 20 percent. If it did develop, it would likely do so in the next 48 hours before weakening. By the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles over the weekend, it should be a trough of low pressure capable of producing enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity.

Disturbance 25 has been removed from our analysis.

Meteorologists: Cameron Self / Matt Haworth