Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 14 is located near 10.5N, 40.5W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 mph. There has been little change in organization overnight. However, the squalls have decreased slightly and some satellite-based intensity estimates indicate the system has weakened some. There is a 70 percent chance it could become a depression or tropical storm over the next day or two. Even if it develops, it will quickly encounter increasingly hostile conditions and will likely weaken to an disturbance before reaching the area near the northeastern Caribbean Sea late Sunday or early Monday. This system is not a threat to the Gulf of Mexico or U.S. East Coast.

Disturbance 15 is located near 30.5N, 68.2W, and is moving slowly westward. The disturbance is currently not tropical in nature. However, there is a chance it could acquire some tropical characteristics over the next 2-3 days. Even if it becomes a subtropical depression or storm, it will turn northward and merge with a cold front before heading out to sea. There is no threat to any land areas from this system. Development chances are estimated to be 30 to 40 percent.

Disturbance 13 is located over South Texas and northeastern Mexico. It will continue moving westward and is not a threat to develop.

Disturbance 11 is located along 87W. It will move into Central America and Mexico today and is not a threat to develop.

Disturbance 12 is located along 76W. It is moving westward at 20 mph. No tropical development is expected.

Meteorologist: Jim Palmer