Tropical Cyclone Development Outlook

Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 4 is located to the northeast of Nicaragua near 15N, 83W. The disturbance is drifting slowly to the northwest. It will track across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today and move into the Yucatan Peninsula tomorrow with little to no development expected due to unfavorable environmental conditions. Disturbance 4 will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Friday.

Disturbance 4 is forecast to enter the southwestern Gulf late Thursday or early Friday. There is about a 20 percent chance that the disturbance will briefly develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm before moving into the lower Texas or northeastern coast of Mexico late Saturday or early Sunday. Regardless of development, the disturbance will bring deep tropical moisture across the north-central and northwestern Gulf coast this weekend, resulting in enhanced thunderstorm activity across northeastern Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana this weekend into early next week.

Disturbance 6 is located along 59W or 135 miles to the east of Trinidad. The disturbance is moving to the west at 22 mph. There are no signs of organization. No development is expected. This disturbance will produce showers and thunderstorms across the Windward Islands, Trinidad, Tobago, and northern Venezuela through today.

Meteorologist: Jim Palmer