Active Systems
None

Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
We have designated a broad area of disturbed weather in the southwest Caribbean as Disturbance 4. We expect the broad low to persist for the next several days in the southwest Caribbean. Most of the models indicate that this system will gradually organize toward the start of next week as it moves toward the northern Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. For now, we are only raising the chance of development from 10 percent to 30 percent, which is a little higher than the climatological chance of development for this time of year. We are awaiting to see if the disturbance consolidates as expected, as well if there is additional model support for development, before raising the chances of development further.

The system will likely move in the direction of the Yucatan Peninsula around the middle of next week. Beyond then, there is a high degree of uncertainty with regards to where the system will move due to poor model agreement.

As was the case with Alberto, we expect the disturbance will encounter moderate to strong wind shear. Thus, we do not expect that the system will be able to become a hurricane. Instead, if the system were to develop, it would likely be a tropical depression or a weak tropical storm. Nearly all of the associated bad weather will be located east of the center.

Meteorologists: Derek Ortt / Chris Hebert