Subtropical Storm Alberto Track Chart, Advisory #26

Current Location: 31.2N, 86.2W
Geographic Reference: 165 miles south of Birmingham, AL
Movement: North-northwest at 14 mph
Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 45 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles
Organizational Trend: Weakening over land
Forecast Confidence: Average

Key Points

  1. The main threat is localized flash flooding.
  2. No additional tropical storm force winds are expected.

Our Forecast
Alberto is moving inland. It is barely a subtropical storm. It should be downgraded to a depression soon. By late tomorrow morning, we expect that Alberto will be a remnant area of low pressure.

The remnant low is expected to track mainly to the north-northwest. It is expected to bring heavy rains along its path. Some of the heaviest rains currently near and to the northwest of the center. Peak rain rates near the center are generally between .5 and 1 inch per hour. There is also a band of heavy storms well northeast of the center over northern Georgia. Higher rain rates are likely occurring there. These rains in the outer bands should decrease in intensity during the overnight hours, while there may be an enhancement of the rains near the center.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Southeastern United States: Flash flooding could lead to travel delays, especially in southern Alabama near where the center of Alberto tracks. There, significant travel delays are possible.

Our next advisory will be issued by 3 AM CDT

Meteorologist: Derek Ortt

Forecast Confidence:   Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 9PM CDT Mon May 28 31.20N 86.20W 40 mph 45 mph Subtropical Storm 1 1 2
3 12AM CDT Tue May 29 31.80N 86.30W 35 mph 40 mph Subtropical Storm 0 1 1
12 9AM CDT Tue May 29 33.50N 86.60W 25 mph 30 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
24 9PM CDT Tue May 29 36.00N 86.70W 15 mph 25 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0

The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.