Current Location: 29.2N, 85.9W
Geographic Reference: 65 miles south of Panama City, FL
Movement: North at 8 mph
Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 65 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 65 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Average
Key Points
- Landfall is expected early this afternoon near or just west of Panama City.
- Tropical storm force winds should be confined to the immediate coast. They will not carry far inland.
- There remains a threat of flooding today and Tuesday.
Our Forecast
Data from a recon plane indicate that Alberto has a very small area of peak winds in squalls located offshore Apalachicola about 40 miles north through northeast of the center. Those squalls have been passing over a buoy for the past hour. Peak sustained winds at that buoy have been less than 50 mph, though it is possible that the squalls do contain 50 mph winds. Winds are lower in other parts of the storm. Wind observations along the Florida Panhandle have been between 10 mph and 20 mph over the past several hours. It does not appear that Alberto’s winds are carrying inland very far.
Alberto has been accelerating northward over the past 2-3 hours after jogging a bit to the east earlier this morning. At its current speed, the center should cross the coast of Florida near Panama City by early this afternoon. Note that Alberto’s tropical storm-force winds cover only a small part of the northeast Gulf. Most stations along the Florida Panhandle may not see any sustained 39 mph winds when Alberto makes landfall. However, wind gusts to 60 mph may be possible along the immediate coast in a few squalls. Those squalls may impact the coast from Apalachicola to Panama City over the next 2-3 hours. Tropical storm-force winds will not carry very far inland due to the lack of very heavy squalls near Alberto’s center.
After landfall, Alberto will quickly weaken as it tracks northward into southern Alabama this evening. Winds across southern Alabama will generally be less than 25 mph as Alberto passes. The main threat across the southeast U.S. remains heavy rainfall.
Expected Impacts Offshore
Mississippi Canyon/Viosca Knoll/Mobile – Squalls will stay east of this area today, though there may be a few showers at times. Winds will be 25 mph or less as Alberto passes to the east.
Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Panhandle through Southern Alabama – Scattered power outages will be possible where Alberto’s heavier squalls move ashore this morning. These power outages will be confined to the immediate coast. Travel delays could occur in the areas that receive the highest rainfall totals.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by 12PM CDT. Our next full advisory will be issued by 3PM CDT.
Meteorologist: Chris Hebert
| Forecast Confidence: Average | Hurricane Severity Index | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fcst Hour | Valid | Lat. | Lon. | Max Sustained Winds | Max Gusts | Category | Size | Intensity | Total |
| 0 | 9AM CDT Mon May 28 | 29.20N | 85.90W | 50 mph | 65 mph | Subtropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | 3PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.20N | 85.80W | 45 mph | 60 mph | Subtropical Storm | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | 6PM CDT Mon May 28 | 30.70N | 85.80W | 40 mph | 50 mph | Subtropical Storm | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 12 | 9PM CDT Mon May 28 | 31.20N | 85.90W | 35 mph | 45 mph | Subtropical Storm | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | 3AM CDT Tue May 29 | 32.60N | 86.00W | 30 mph | 40 mph | Subtropical Storm | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 9AM CDT Tue May 29 | 33.90N | 86.10W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | 9PM CDT Tue May 29 | 37.00N | 86.70W | 15 mph | 25 mph | Remnant Low | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The yellow cone represents track error from the previous five hurricane seasons. Over the past five hurricane seasons, the center of the storm tracked within the yellow cone 75% of the time. The cone does not represent the forecast uncertainty in the current advisory for this storm. In addition, hurricane-force winds, very high tides, large waves, and heavy rainfall can often extend well outside the yellow cone.
