Disturbance 3 Track Chart, Advisory #3

Current Location: 18.4N, 85.8W
Geographic Reference: 150 miles east of northern Belize
Movement: North-northwest at 6 mph
Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles
Organizational Trend: Steady
Forecast Confidence: Below Average

Key Points
1. Disturbance 3 is predicted to become a weak tropical storm in the eastern Gulf on Saturday.
2. Strong southwesterly wind shear should keep most squalls and stronger wind east of the track.
3. Heavy rain is possible from the Florida Peninsula north into Georgia and Alabama between Friday and Monday.
4. Little impact is expected from the mouth of the Mississippi west to Texas.

Our Forecast
Disturbance 3 (Invest 90L) has changed little in organization over the past several hours as it remains a broad and weak area of low pressure in the western Caribbean Sea. The disturbance is moving slowly to the north-northward toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Our forecast takes the disturbance into the southeastern Gulf on Thursday afternoon. Moderate to strong southwesterly wind shear across the central and eastern Gulf through the coming weekend will impact the disturbance, keeping most of its squalls and significant winds east of the track.

We think that the disturbance may become organized enough by Friday or Saturday that it is upgraded to a tropical depression. Development chances have increased to 70 percent that the disturbance develops into at least a tropical depression. Winds in squalls out over the water east of the center could reach tropical storm strength by Saturday afternoon as the center approaches the Florida Panhandle. Once inland, the storm should quickly weaken to a remnant low pressure area. The unfavorable upper-level environment across the eastern Gulf is expected to prevent this system from becoming a strong tropical storm or a hurricane.

Whether or not this disturbance is upgraded to a depression or a tropical storm, its impacts across the eastern Gulf and the southeast U.S. will be the same. Heavy rain is likely across the Florida Peninsula between Thursday night and Sunday. This heavy rain will spread north into Georgia and Alabama over the holiday weekend. No tropical storm-force winds are expected inland across Florida. All tropical storm-force winds will likely be confined to squalls out over the water to the east of the track.

Expected Impacts Offshore
Eastern Gulf of Mexico (east of 88W) – Widespread squalls Friday to Sunday morning with wind gusts to 50 kts possible, along with rough seas at times.

Expected Impacts Onshore
Florida Peninsula – Widespread heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur Friday through Sunday, resulting in street flooding and travel issues.
Florida Panhandle to Southern Georgia and Alabama – Heavy showers and thunderstorms will occur from Sunday through Monday, resulting in travel issues.

Our next advisory will be issued by 9AM CDT.

Meteorologist: Claude Aultman

 

Forecast Confidence:   Below Average Hurricane Severity Index
Fcst Hour Valid Lat. Lon. Max Sustained Winds Max Gusts Category Size Intensity Total
0 3AM CDT Wed May 23 18.40N 85.80W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
12 3PM CDT Wed May 23 19.40N 86.10W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
24 3AM CDT Thu May 24 20.50N 86.30W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
36 3PM CDT Thu May 24 21.90N 86.50W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
48 3AM CDT Fri May 25 23.30N 86.70W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
60 3PM CDT Fri May 25 24.60N 86.60W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Disturbance 0 0 0
72 3AM CDT Sat May 26 25.80N 86.40W 35 mph 45 mph Tropical Depression 0 1 1
84 3PM CDT Sat May 26 27.00N 86.10W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
96 3AM CDT Sun May 27 28.30N 85.80W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
108 3PM CDT Sun May 27 29.90N 85.70W 40 mph 50 mph Tropical Storm 1 1 2
120 3AM CDT Mon May 28 31.40N 86.10W 30 mph 40 mph Tropical Depression 0 0 0
132 3PM CDT Mon May 28 32.40N 86.70W 25 mph 30 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0
144 3AM CDT Tue May 29 33.00N 87.40W 15 mph 25 mph Remnant Low 0 0 0